FAQ: Mumbai, 7/11

Why were the trains chosen for attacks?

We had the first attacks on trains in India in December, 1993, by theStudents' Islamic Movement of India (SIMI). It was not well organised and thecasualties were small. Random explosions in railway trains  now and then,here and there, keep taking place.  They do not make much of an impact. The Mumbai blasts of 7/11 made an impact because the blasts were multiple, well-synchronisedand took place one after the other in quick succession. And the fatalities werelarge (close to 200). Terrorists like to attack railways because they willalways be soft targets whatever be the physical security.  Successfulattacks on trains dramatically demonstrate to the ordinary people the inabilityof the state to protect them.  The intimidatory effect on the generalpopulation is more than in the case of attacks on civil aviation.  Planesare used mostly by the moneyed elite. 

Terrorism as a means of waging a war has four objectives--to intimidate thestate and the civil population; to demonstrate the inability of the state toprotect its civilian population; to generate pressure on the state from itspopulation to settle with the terrorists; and to create feelings of battlefatigue in the state as well as its population. In the calculation of theterrorists, all these objectives are facilitated by successful attacks on masstransport systems--trains, buses or ferries. Terrorists have convincedthemselves that it was their successful strike on trains in Madrid in March,2004, which forced the Spanish government to withdraw its troops from Iraq andthat it was their attacks on the transport system in London in July last year that set in motion the political weakening of Mr. Tony Blair, the British PrimeMinister. 

Mumbai was a replication of Madrid, but on a larger scale. There were onlyfour explosions in Madrid, but seven in Mumbai.  There could be suchreplication elsewhere too--in India as well as abroad.  In 1967-68, whenthe PLO took to plane-hijacking, there were copy-cat emulations all over theworld by different terrorist groups for nearly a decade. Concerted measures fortightening civil aviation security brought this to an end.  Such concertedmeasures are difficult in the case of mass transit systems, but one has to findways of making terrorist attacks on trains more and more difficult.

Mass casualty attacks on trains has been mainly the defining characteristicof jihadi terrorist organisations, which specialise in the use of explosives. Whichever country has jihadi terrorism, with expertise available to theterrorists in the use of explosives, it becomes vulnerable to Madrid and Mumbaistyle attacks. Preventive security measures would entail large expenditure andcountries in Asia and Africa may not be able to make that kind of investment.Hence, they become more vulnerable than Western countries.

Why has Mumbai been repeatedly attacked by terrorists since March, 1993?

Mumbai is India's New York and Chicago (of the 1920s and the 1930s) rolledinto one. It is the economic capital of India. Many foreign multinationals havetheir corporate headquarters in Mumbai. It contributes more to the 온라인카지노exchequer than any other city.  It is also the mafia capital of India. Manymafia groups of South Asia have their active presence in Mumbai. One finds thenexus between terrorism and organised crime most vividly demonstrated in Mumbai.Mumbai is India's economic nerve-centre. If it decays, India decays. Anybody,who wishes ill of India and wants to prevent it from emerging as a majoreconomic power--whether it is Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) or AlQaeda or the Pakistani jihadi organisations--would target Mumbai.  Tostrike successfully, terrorists need money, sanctuaries, arms and ammunition andexplosives, logistical support, alienated pockets of the population wanting togive vent to their anger etc. All of them are available in plenty in Mumbai.There has been a deterioration of the quality of urban policing in India.Nowhere has this deterioration been more disturbing than in Mumbai.

When did the ISI develop an interest in targeting Mumbai?

In the early 1990s. An arrested Khalistani terrorist told the police duringhis interrogation that during his training in Pakistan, the ISI had asked him tojoin the Mumbai Flying Club, take a plane up on a solo flight and crash it onthe Bombay High off-shore oil installations. He said he did not do it becausethe Khalistani terrorists were against suicide terrorism. When Dawood Ibrahim,the 온라인카지노 mafia leader, and his boys sought training and arms assistance fromthe ISI for the blasts of March, 1993, it was the ISI, which gave them a list ofcarefully selected economic targets to be attacked. Recent reports speak of anISI interest in attacks on economic targets in Bangalore.

Why do the Pakistani jihadi organisations, which are members of Osama binLaden's International Islamic Front (IIF), try to repeatedly attack Mumbai?

It is the ISI, which insists on their attacking targets in Mumbai in returnfor its assistance to them.

What has been the history of Pakistan-sponsored jihadi terrorism in the온라인카지노 territory outside Jammu & Kashmir?

It started after the demolition of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya by a Hindu mobin December, 1992. There were three attacks of jihadi terrorism  in1993-94--the serial blasts in Mumbai organised by the Dawood Ibrahim mafia, theexplosion outside the office of a Hindutva organisation in Chennai organised byAl Ummah, an organisation of Tamil Nadu with close links with the SIMI, and theexplosions in railway trains organised by the SIMI in north India. There was alull from 1995 to 1997. Jihadi terrorist attacks in the 온라인카지노 territory outsideJ&K resumed again after the government of Shri A. B. Vajpayee came to powerin 1998. These attacks have continued off and on since then. There was again alull between September 2003 and July, 2005. Since July, 2005, these attacks havebeen resumed and made more and more lethal.

Would it be correct to say that there would have been no jihadi terrorismin the 온라인카지노 territory outside J&K if the Babri Masjid had not beendemolished?

No. Pakistan's plans for spreading jihadi terrorism to other parts of Indiahad been drawn up even in the 1980s when Gen.Zia ul-Haq was in power. A smallgroup of SIMI had gone to Pakistan clandestinely and Pakistan's Jamaat-e-Islamiarranged for its training by contacting the ISI. After they returned to India,they had difficulty in organising acts of terrorism for want of support from thelocal Muslim community. This support started coming in after the demolition ofthe Babri Masjid.

What has been the role of 온라인카지노 and Pakistani Muslims in jihadi terrorismin the 온라인카지노 territory outside J&K?

In the initial wave of anger after the Babri Masjid demolition, all theterrorist strikes of 1993-94 were carried out by 온라인카지노 Muslims trained andarmed by Pakistan. From 1994, jihadi terrorism by sections of 온라인카지노 Muslimsdeclined. The ISI asked the Pakistani jihadi organisations, which had startedoperating in J&K from 1993 onwards, to spread out to other parts of Indiaand take over the leadership of the jihadi terrorist movement there. Thisstarted happening from 1998. The serial blasts in Coimbatore in February, 1998,were the last attack planned and executed exclusively by a group of 온라인카지노Muslim youth belonging to the Al Ummah. In all subsequent jihadi strikes in the온라인카지노 territory outside J&K, the leadership role was exercised by Pakistaniorganisations, with participation by recruits from the 온라인카지노 Muslim communityin India and the Gulf.

What has been the role of Al Qaeda in India?

The Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), theHarkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM), which are active inJ&K since 1993 and in other parts of India thereafter, are members of binLaden's International Islamic Front (IIF) formed in February,1998. Al Qaeda, asan organbisation, has reportedly  no presence in India, but it operatesthrough its Pakistani surrogates.

Since 9/11, there have been three indicators of possible Al Qaeda links withelements in India. After the arrest of Abu Zubaidah, the then No.3 of Al Qaedaat Faislabad in Pakistan in March, 2002, sections of the Pakistani media hadreported that he had done a course in computer training at Pune in India beforecrossing over to Pakistan and joining Al Qaeda. The report of the US NationalCommission, which enquired into the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US, refers toa visit to India by Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, who was believed to haveorchestrated the 9/11 strikes in the US, but it does not give any other details.It also refers to the use made by Al Qaeda of the services of one al-Hindi (Bilalal-Hindi) for collecting target information from New York. Subsequent reportsfrom American and British investigators identified him as a Hindu convert toIslam, whose Gujerati family had migrated to the UK from East Africa. It wasalso reported that he had been visiting J&K. One does not know whether theseindicators were thoroughly followed up by 온라인카지노 investigators in order to builda full picture of any Al Qaeda cells in India. At present, the presumption is AlQaeda has no cell in India. This may be wrong.

What has been the attitude of Al Qaeda to India?

Before 2003, bin Laden and Al Qaeda used to criticise the US for allegedlysupporting India on the Kashmir issue. There was no criticism of India itself.From 2003 onwards, Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Laden's No.2, started referring toIndia and the Hindus in the context of his attacks on Gen.Pervez Musharraf. Heaccused Musharraf of paving the way for the take-over of Pakistan by the Hindus. Since the visit of President Bush to India in March last, bin Laden himself hasstarted criticising India. He and Al Qaeda have started speaking of aCrusader-Jewish-Hindu conspiracy against Islam. Al Qaeda has also been accusingIndia of using Bush to exercise pressure on Musharraf to stop supporting the"freedom struggle" in J&K. Now whenever Al Qaeda talks of theglobal jihad, it refers to Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine, Darfur in the Sudan,J&K and Chechnya.

What has been the attitude of the 온라인카지노 Muslims to Al Qaeda and binLaden?

The Kashmiri jihadi Muslims, who look upon the US as their objective ally,have been keeping away from them lest their support for Al Qaeda bemisunderstood by the US. They have, however, been totally supporting thePakistani jihadi organisations, which are members of the IIF. Support for binLaden among the non-Kashmiri Muslims has been increasing, though it is stillsmall. While very few Kashmiri Muslims joined the anti-Bush demonstrations inMarch last, a large number of non-Kashmiri Muslims joined. Some of thesenon-Kashmiri Muslims even shouted pro-Al Qaeda and pro-bin Laden slogans,particularly in Mumbai.

Is there any likelihood of any convergence of interest between the ISI andAl Qaeda in India?

Both are concerned over the growing strategic relations between India and theUS--each for its own reason. Pakistan is peeved at the Indo-US deal forco-operation in the development of civilian nuclear power and is annoyed at theUS refusal to sign a similar agreement with Pakistan. It is upset over the USefforts to build up India as an Asian power on par with China. Al Qaeda'sobjection is more ideological.  It looks upon anyone having having closerelations with the US and Israel as its adversary. The ISI and Al Qaeda wouldlike to hamper, if not disrupt, this growth. Al Qaeda attacks on US nationalsand interests in India at the instigation or with the complicity of the ISI, istherefore a possibility.

Are there any other factors requiring attention?

The dubious role of Iranian intelligence agencies. There were someindications that the Iranians played a role in instigating the anti-Bushdemonstrations--particularly in Lucknow and Hyderabad, which have a large Shiapopulation. The Iranian intelligence has been trying to create difficulties forthe UK-led NATO forces in Afghanistan by assisting in the resurgence of theTaliban. It has also kept Iraq boiling. The Iran-backed Hezbollah in the Lebanonhas been targeting Israel. One has to pay greater attention to any clandestineactivities of Iran in India. The ISI, the Iranian Intelligence and Al Qaedamight find a convergence of interest in disrupting Indo-US relations.